Tempering Expectations

This post is as much for me as for you. After reading Dave's Falsehoop post over at BlazersEdge, it's time to get real about the coming Blazers season. So here are some facts.

FACT: Greg Oden will put up impressive stat numbers.
BUT: Some of those numbers will be impressive in a bad way, at least to start the season. As Oden gets used to the NBA game, expect a lot of turnovers, a lot of fouls, and a lot of missed shots.

FACT: Darius Miles won't play this year.
BUT: He'll still be a drain on our resources. There won't be a buy-out, there won't be a medical retirement. There'll just be Darius, fat and happy in his suit (by the way, I've yet to see a fat Darius picture. Anyone have a link to one?)

FACT: The Blazers will be powerful in the playoffs.
BUT: It won't be for at least another year. They are a young team. Expect a rough first half of this season before they start to gel.

FACT: Travis Outlaw will finally show whether he'll reach his potential.
BUT: The down-side is that we probably aren't getting our stud SF, as I've been hoping. I've been asking around, and the Rudy Fernandez mystery is simply that Pritchard really wasn't supposed to discuss him too much until the trade was finalized. Apparently the team's high on Fernandez and has no immediate plans to move him. So we have some moving to do, but at the same time there's not a whole lot of splash left this summer.

Blazer fans are high as a kite right now. Which is great. But everyone thinks Greg Oden is the second coming and that he'll miraculously bring the Blazers to the Finals this year. Although I don't want to go so far as to say it absolutely won't happen, well, it won't. This team has very good players who are very young. Greg's got to get his basketball legs and, like many rookies, will hit a wall half-way through the longer NBA season. LaMarcus will have his first season with big-time starter minutes and will probably also show a lapse at some point in the later season (though I'd think he'll get through it more quickly than Oden). We're still not settled at PG. And our SF-by-committee approach leaves something to be desired.

I do expect us to be in contention for this year's 8th playoff seed. That said, if we don't quite make it, that's okay. Our window really opens in about two years.

It's a good time to be a Blazers fan. Just don't be shocked when reality hits. All good things to those who wait...