Trade Brandon Roy?

Too soon?

He's sucking it up lately, as is widely reported in the local press. And it seems he just can't seem to put together a decent streak with our present line-up. Whether it's slowness, bad knees, some sort of mental disorder, or whatever, it is seeming like B-Roy is perhaps becoming a liability.

Clearly, he can still have good games. But he seems to be of the opinion that our current line-up is a hindrance and not a help. What to do?

Some feel B-Roy is still untouchable. I'm coming to be less and less of that opinion all the time. We have Matthews, Batum, and Fernandez, all of whom can platoon his position as we shed his weight with Pryzbilla or Miller's expiring contract (which are probably the only thing that would add sizzle to a B-Roy trade-steak at this point). Roy probably has substantial value somewhere; it's seeming less-and-less likely that that value is here, this year or for the next couple.

I'm coming to be of the opinion that it's time to start cutting bait and moving toward tomorrow. Today, clearly, sucks...

Suck It Patterson, Part D'uh

The word that I've continued to ponder all season with this Blazers team, and have failed entirely to blog about, is "chemistry." As in Steve Patterson's famous aversion to team chemistry in favor of raw talent. His fan-like devotion to rotisserie-esque, stats-based team construction was usually reviled, but we were too-far removed from the trifecta of consummate teammates Clyde, Terry, Jerome and Buck to realize what was going wrong.

Juxtapose "I didn't major in chemistry" with this quote from KP, courtesy of Jason Quick's blog at Oregonlive today:

"We're not making any trades,'' Pritchard said Tuesday afternoon in New Orleans, where the team is preparing to play the Hornets tonight. "I mean, why? What
benefit is there? If I did a trade right now that didn't pan out, I would be
crucified. What would be my motivation to trade - we have a good young team that
likes each other and is playing well. . . Now, if Cleveland wanted to include
LeBron James, we would certainly listen. But, I like my team. We are the
youngest team in the NBA, we have a great young coach and we have a team that
likes each other and plays unselfishly. I don't want to do anything that would
be disruptive to what we have going on.''

That's refreshing, isn't it? Recognize what we have, that it works well together, and that there isn't internal dissent and bickering and cancer, and encourage the chemistry to take place, as opposed to snuffing it out. Just another reason why I say KP for president.

Suck it, Steve Patterson!

Cudos to Canzano for pointing out this study which rates past and present NBA GM's based on a variety of performance criteria.

What does it show us? What we already knew, which is that (A) Steve Patterson sucked, and (B) Kevin Pritchard's going to rock (note that, in order to get him and the other first-year GM's into the study, they were each given a league-average season plus their current performance; Pritchard still comes in the upper 50%, which says he's trending nicely).

I love KP, and I love the team these days. Too bad I haven't had the time or the scratch to get to a game. By the way, whenever I do, Mark Mason promised me a beer to make up for the previously-mentioned snub for the Sam Adams party (which, it turns out, was likely as much my fault as Mark and Dave's). Mark Mason made it clear in the e-mail that he's read some of my other stuff, which I appreciated.

Another Jailblazer Moment?

So, a bar fight, a broken arm, and a Blazer in the mix. What else is new?

So little, and yet so much. In a town where the Jailblazer name became a standard part of the lexicon (although most of us have managed to rip it out of our dictionary in the last year or two), news that a Portland Trail Blazer was in the midst of a bar fight is almost old.

Being that I've often talked about how Darius Miles, the Blazer in question, is a general piece, and how I want him gone, and how I think he's the last bad apple in the ol' rotten barrel, I'll note that this news story is exceptional mostly for how little it convinces me that Darius has done anything wrong.

In a bar, during a bar fight? For shame!!!

Now, I've had my issues in the past with Darius and bars and fights. Of course, those were strip clubs and fights that he had a less-tenuous connection with. But for heaven's sakes, people, this is a fight in a sports bar, where the only incriminating evidence is that Darius was there. It would be easy to jump the gun, but for the fact that I've been to sports bars where I've seen fights break out, and I wasn't involved.

Darius has hired an attorney, Steven Houze, which is setting off bells at Bojack, but means nothing to me. In these days, and given his reputation, hiring an attorney is a good idea, even if it's bad PR. I figure that, given Darius' a-holery in the past and his obvious knack for drawing unwelcome attention, a finger or two may end up getting pointed his way, and he very well may end up being some sort of person of interest. Being ready for that isn't a bad idea.

I don't know why PPB is making such a point of throwing dirt at Darius, other than he's an easy target. I still don't like him, and I still think he needs to go, but in this case I'm holding judgment until there's an actual finger pointing at him regarding some actual misconduct.

Kevin Pritchard to Anonymous Tipsters: "Shut the Eff Up."

In the on-going wake of KneeGate, Kevin Pritchard's taken a beating in numerous places on the web (you can Google it for yourself) regarding the decision to draft Greg Oden over Kevin Durant. The current story is that Pritchard and his staff opted for Oden despite having reason to worry about his knees.

Pritchard responds by saying "That's just stupid," and noting that the knees were checked out in particular, and MRI's came back "absolutely pristine."

I'm still waiting to grade KP. I may have to wait an extra season now. But so far I've been impressed with his work, and I think he has integrity, and I'm going to guess that given all the pre-draft press about Oden's potential problems, Pritchard most likely did everything he could to confirm the knee wasn't an issue prior to drafting the future of our franchise.

Oh, and Greg, get well soon. The Oden's Hammer Fan Club still loves you.

UPDATE: Thanks to Casey at OLive for the mention, based on my post title. You never know what's going to catch someone's eye, but it took me a couple of minutes to figure out why I'd gotten so many hits today (400+ and counting...). If you're here, feel free to look around and let me know what you think.

State of the Blazers (Graphic Version)

Do you agree?


(Click here to go see the article. Hat tip to TrueHoop and BlazersEdge).

Tradewinds a-blowin'

So now there's scuttlebutt that the Utah Jazz may be drooling over Portland's Joel Przybilla. And now we're seeing that my old predictions of Przybilla and Jack to somebody may yet come true.

The proposal: Gordon Giricek and Ronnie Brewer for Przybilla and Sergio Rodriguez. That trade works, but does that make it the one we want? I don't see us parting with Sergio.

I also checked the trade using Martell Webster and Jarrett Jack instead of Sergio. Jack worked. Martell didn't.

Last time I checked, Ime Udoka was still shopping a contract. Could we work him into a sign and trade?

In the end, though this deal relieves some congestion in our bigs, I don't know how it helps us ultimately. We're stocked at SG with Brandon and Martell (and Fernandez in the wings, off in Europe) and though Brewer could do some work at the SF, I don't know if we need a 'tweener on the roster. But, if the team really is moving toward Sergio as our starting PG in a season or two, moving Jarrett makes sense, and this deal isn't really bad.

Your thoughts are, as always, welcome.

Blazers' Schedule Released

Casey at OLive's Blazerblog provides the following Blazers schedule, just released. I've bolded home games for easy reference.

October
Tue 30 @ San Antonio 5:00pm -- TNT

November
Fri 2 @ New Orleans 5:00pm
Sat 3 @ Houston 5:30pm -- NBATV
Wed 7 New Orleans 7:30pm -- --
Fri 9 Memphis 7:00pm -- --
Sat 10 Dallas 7:00pm -- --
Tue 13 Detroit 7:00pm -- --
Wed 14 @ Denver 6:00pm -- --
Fri 16 @ Philadelphia 4:00pm -- --
Sat 17 @ Washington 4:00pm -- --
Mon 19 @ Charlotte 4:00pm -- --
Wed 21 New Jersey 7:00pm -- --
Fri 23 Sacramento 7:00pm -- --
Mon 26 Orlando 7:00pm -- --
Wed 28 Indiana 7:00pm -- --
Fri 30 @ Dallas 5:30pm -- --

December
Sun 2 @ San Antonio 12:30pm -- --
Mon 3 @ Memphis 5:00pm -- --
Thu 6 Miami 7:30pm -- TNT
Sun 9 Milwaukee 3:00pm -- --
Tue 11 @ Utah 6:00pm -- --
Wed 12 Golden State 7:00pm -- --
Fri 14 Utah 7:00pm -- --
Sun 16 @ Denver 5:00pm -- NBATV
Mon 17 New Orleans 7:00pm -- --
Wed 19 Toronto 7:00pm -- --
Fri 21 Denver 7:00pm -- --
Tue 25 Seattle 5:00pm -- ESPN
Fri 28 Minnesota 7:00pm -- --
Sun 30 Philadelphia 3:00pm -- --
Mon 31 @ Utah 5:00pm -- --

January
Wed 2 @ Minnesota 5:00pm -- --
Thu 3 @ Chicago 5:00pm -- TNT
Sat 5 Utah 7:00pm -- NBATV
Wed 9 Golden State 7:00pm -- --
Sun 13 @ Toronto 9:30am -- --
Mon 14 @ New Jersey 4:30pm -- NBATV
Wed 16 @ Boston 4:30pm -- --
Fri 18 @ Miami 4:00pm -- ESPN
Sat 19 @ Orlando 4:00pm -- --
Mon 21 @ Atlanta 11:00am -- --
Wed 23 @ New Orleans 5:00pm -- --
Fri 25 Houston 7:00pm -- --
Sun 27 Atlanta 3:00pm -- --
Wed 30 Cleveland 6:00pm -- ESPN

February
Fri 1 New York 7:30pm -- ESPN
Mon 4 Denver 7:00pm -- NBATV
Wed 6 Chicago 7:00pm -- --
Fri 8 @ Detroit 5:00pm -- --
Sat 9 @ Indiana 4:00pm -- --
Mon 11 @ Houston 5:30pm -- --
Wed 13 @ Dallas 5:30pm -- --
Tue 19 Sacramento 7:00pm -- --
Thu 21 Seattle 7:30pm -- TNT
Fri 22 @ Seattle 7:30pm -- --
Sun 24 Boston 3:00pm -- --
Tue 26 @ L.A. Lakers 7:30pm -- --
Wed 27 @ L.A. Clippers 7:30pm -- --
Fri 29 L.A. Lakers 7:30pm -- ESPN

March
Sun 2 @ Golden State 6:00pm -- --
Tue 4 Phoenix 7:00pm -- --
Fri 7 @ Milwaukee 5:30pm -- --
Sat 8 @ New York 4:30pm -- --
Mon 10 @ Cleveland 4:00pm -- --
Tue 11 @ Minnesota 5:00pm -- --
Thu 13 @ Sacramento 7:00pm -- --
Sat 15 Minnesota 7:00pm -- --
Tue 18 Phoenix 7:30pm -- TNT
Fri 21 L.A. Clippers 7:00pm -- --
Sat 22 @ L.A. Clippers 7:30pm -- --
Mon 24 @ Seattle 7:00pm -- NBATV
Tue 25 Washington 7:00pm -- --
Thu 27 @ Golden State 7:30pm -- --
Sat 29 Charlotte 7:00pm -- --

April
Wed 2 @ L.A. Lakers 7:30pm -- --
Thu 3 Houston 7:30pm -- TNT
Sun 6 San Antonio 3:00pm -- --
Tue 8 L.A. Lakers 7:00pm -- --
Fri 11 @ Sacramento 7:00pm -- --
Sat 12 Dallas 7:00pm -- NBATV
Tue 15 Memphis 7:00pm -- --
Wed 16 @ Phoenix 7:00pm -- --

Now that I've rescinded my "no pay for tickets" rule, I need to start plotting how I'm going to liberate funds to make some of these.

Anyone have a spare ticket to the Seattle game on Christmas?

Blazers: The Roster is Set

So, according to J. Freeman over at The O, the Blazers' roster is set for this season.

Kevin Pritchard, the Blazers' general manager who always seems to be thinking two moves ahead, says Portland's roster is set and fans should not expect any major trades in the near future.

"We're not actively looking around right now," Pritchard said. "We like what we have in place."

Which is fine, I guess. I just want to know (as does Dave over at Blazers Edge) what the rotation is, particularly at SF and PG.

That roster, apparently, won't count Joel Freeland, the Blazers' project center from the UK, this season.

So I asked Pritchard if Freeland could land on the Blazers' NBDL team?

"For him to go to the NBDL, he would count against one of our 15 roster spots, so we can't do that right now," Pritchard said. "We're trying to help him get in a better situation."

I suspect that Travis Outlaw is our starter at SF, at least in the short term. He's got as much staring experience there (if not more) than James Jones, who I think would be a good part of a second team, providing some scoring punch (along with Martell) and leadership on an otherwise developing back-up squad.

At PG, I think the short-term answer is that Steve Blake has the starter's job, but I think he understands that he's a stop-gap while the younger guys develop, and I could see him being relegated to the second team to hold down that group while Jarrett Jack gradually re-assumes the starting role. Sergio's another year off.

So, here's my Blazers depth chart:

1st Team
C: Oden, PF: Aldridge, SF: Outlaw, SG: Roy, PG: Blake

2nd Team:
C: Pryzbilla, PF: Frye, SF: James, SG: Webster, PG: Jack

Back-ups
C: LaFrentz, PF/SF: McRoberts, SF: Darius Miles (currently injured), SG: n/a, PG: Rodriguez, Green.

Biggest question is whether the Blazers carry Taurean Green on their roster or ship him to the NBDL. I figure they move him down for the playing time, perhaps with McRoberts (though I'd actually expect McRoberts to travel with the team, for his size).

So, apparently no more moves coming (unless this is a mis-information campaign), so let's get this freakin' show on the road...

Blazers for Sale?

That's what John Canzano wonders on his blog today, quoting an article on the amid-the-scandal health of the NBA that has this throw-in sentence fragment:

... a Michigan-based group is looking to buy the Portland Trail Blazers.

My gut tells me that, just because a group is making a pitch doesn't make Paul Allen a seller. But, at the same time, why would you make a pitch if you didn't think you could make the deal (unless it's to establish legitimacy for future pitches)?

Certainly there are reasons to sell. The team has been losing money with it's "broken financial model." That's fixed, somewhat, by re-purchasing the Rose Garden. But, still, if Allen doesn't change the lease agreement and then sells the team, he become the beneficiary of someone else's problems (that's probably something the Vulcans would support). And the team is in better shape to sell, with a roster set up to make the team much more profitable in two years, if the owners go 90's Clippers and decide to pocket profits instead of investing in a contender.

Of course, nobody would buy the team without buying the arena, it would seem to me. And Paul Allen may be looking to escape the arena's costs.

The team's also gotten very exciting of late, both for the city and, I'd assume, for the owner. Allen's been all over the place, very visible and accessible (for him) and, it appears, very involved in his team. This may speak to his excitement over what he has, which would make a sale unlikely in my mind.

And, yet, I remember something that Colin Cowherd likes to say on his show. Company CEO's only show up in the press when they're trying to drive stock up so that they can sell it and get out of a failing company. I don't know that I totally buy into it, but it has me thinking...

I've fragged Paul Allen in the past. The crux of my concerns was that Allen was throwing bad money on top of other bad money player-wise, was meddling in personnel decisions like the team was a rotisserie-league line-up, and was letting his bone-head business guys make basketball decisions. It appears he's rectifying those issues, and if he maintains his current behavior, I'll support him.

UPDATE: Over at the O's BlazerBlog, Casey Holdahl adds this:

So I went ahead and contacted Evan Weiner [ed note: the original article's author] via email, and he assured me that a group from Michigan is indeed looking to buy an NBA franchise to the tune of some $400 million. Weiner notes that the Michigan group initially looked at purchasing another NBA team, but when those talks stalled, they turned their attention to the Blazers.

Most importantly though, Weiner states that he knows the Michigan group is looking to buy but that he has no knowledge regarding whether or not Allen is willing to sell.

I'm waiting on a response to a request for a statement from the Trail Blazers. I'll give you that information if and when I get it.

Be interesting to see what develops here...

UPDATED UPDATE: Casey Holdahl reports that he spoke to one of the Vulcans (Michael Nank, spokesperson for Paul Allen over at Vulcan Inc.) who told him that the Blazers aren't on the block and sent the following by way of confirming e-mail:

I caught your Blog today regarding the New York Sun article. I wanted to let you know that any speculation regarding the team is unwarranted. Mr. Allen is
100% committed to the Portland Trail Blazers and he has no interest in selling the franchise.

Hope this clears things up...and go Blazers!

I hope this is the last word on this topic.

Darius Miles Update

Thanks to Jim Taylor, The Blazers Evangelist, for the following, um, news.

McMillan reports that Miles is working out twice a day and has started to ride the bike. The “hope” is that Miles will be able to start running and maybe even scrimmage some come September.

I wouldn't say I hate Darius Miles, but I do dislike him strongly and wish him general ill. So to hear talk of him coming back is, at the best, a mixed bag for me.

Why would I want him back in the rotation? Well, of course, I wouldn't, but in the world of what's best for the team, here are the options (in order of awesomeness).

1. He retires (which I'm assured he won't do by my people).
2. Paul Allen waives him (which I'm also assured won't happen).
3. He stays injured all year, at which point we can, as I understand it, essentially retire him from our roster.
4. He starts practicing, and re-injures his knee, and then see #3 (I see #3 or #4 as the most likely).
5. He starts playing and does awesome (extremely unlikely), and another team trades for him.
6. He starts playing and does a capable job (not very likely), continues to be untradeable until he's closer to the end of his contract and a team can waive him (or let his contract expire for cap space).
7. He starts playing and does sucky (very likely among the "starts playing" options), we're stuck with him on our roster, and we take the savings when his contract expires.

So, the awesome stuff won't happen, and we're left to collectively hope he never hits the court (in which case we can force him out) or else we're left to hope he comes in and plays well enough to entice a team into a trade. Really, if he can keep his nose clean and magically become a good team guy, he may be our answer at the SF by mid-season. But not likely, as I see it. And, if he's not pulling starter time by the end of the season (if he's healthy), then the risk is that he becomes a cancer in the locker room with his dissatisfaction.

So, what to do? Well, if I see Darius, I'm going Nancy Kerrigan on his knee. For the team. What you do is up to you...

Waiting to grade Kevin Pritchard

For all of the recent talk, Kevin Pritchard is Portland's version of the Basketball Jesus. He walks on water, he does no wrong, and he's the saviour of our franchise.

I don't necessarily disagree with any of this, at least not yet. So far, he's had a very good run. But Portland fans need to reserve judgment on Kevin Pritchard.

Pritchard started things out the way Bob Whitsitt would've. He's traded a lot. Unlike Bob, Pritchard does seem concerned about chemistry and team dynamics, though, so I don't particularly take issue with the trades.

The trades have also come, to this point, in apt situations at apt times. The trades have done great things for us: rid us of Telfair and Randolph, netted us Roy, Aldride, and Oden, and set us up for a nice future run with some nice kids at the helm.

The danger is that, at some point, we'll just continue to trade for trades' sake, or that we'll trade because it's expected. Fans (including myself) have gotten really high on KP's trade tendencies in the off-season, and we need to be careful not to understand something important:

In a franchise such as Portland's, in a small town where the culture, personalities, and community all play heavily into fan interest, at some point you need to allow fans to get attached to some people, and you need to show loyalty to fan favorites, even if it isn't necessarily the best thing for the stat line.

There was some upset at the recent shipping-out of Freddie Jones, for instance. The guy opted out of the last year of his contract to come to Portland and play for his home team. Fans loved him. It was a great story. But, just a few months later, as Freddie was talking like he was settling into this roster, he was (surprisingly) shipped out in the Randolph trade.

As many say, it's a business, but still an under-appreciated part of business is loyalty.

Not to say that KP's a heartless trading bastard. The move probably benefitted the team greatly, because it helped us essentially get a free SF from Phoenix. But it raised my eyebrow.

Portland now has its core for the future -- LaMarcus, Brandon, and Greg. It's clear in my mind that, barring some uncharacteristic and unforeseen brain-fart on the part of one of these guys, this is Portland's new Clyde, Terry, and Jerome. This is a nucleus that will be kept together for at least 5 years. But I can't help but wonder if, in the search for the next shiny toy, one of these guys may find themselves as trade bait in a couple of years.

Even if there's a statistical upgrade available, to identify the core as these three and to sell them to the fans as the heart and soul of the franchise means that the front office, I hope, understands that commitment that they are making to fans, and that we as fans are making to the team. We are buying into the team not because of the franchise's history; we are buying into the team because of the guys on the court.

Do I think KP will eff this up? No. He seems brighter than that, and he hails from San Antonio, home of the long-term commitment to Tim Duncan, David Robinson, Tony Parker, etc. But I'm going to say that, while he's done a great job in the just-over-one-season that he's been prominently calling shots, I'm going to wait at least another year, another draft, to give him an actual grade.

Outlaw and Blake in, Ime and Mags out. Latest Blazer Line-up.

So, in the past few days the Blazers have re-signed Travis Outlaw, re-acquired Steve Blake, and let Jamaal Magloire walk. And Ime Udoka should be with another team in the next couple of days (which is fine with me -- he's a good guy and all, but a 30 year-old with bad knees isn't what we need). And James Jones finally becomes official.

So, here's where our line-up stands today.

Probable roster:
C: Greg Oden, Joel Pryzbilla, Raef LaFrentz.
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge, Channing Frye, Josh McRoberts
SF: James Jones, Travis Outlaw, Darius Miles (injured)
SG: Brandon Roy, Martell Webster
PG: Steve Blake, Jarrett Jack, Sergio Rodriguez

That's 14 on the roster. We can have 15 total.

Overseas or in development:
C: Joel Freeland
PF: n/a
SF: n/a
SG: Rudy Fernandez
PG: Petteri Kopenen, Taurean Green

As I understand it, NBDL guys count against our roster. Freeland probably goes back to Europe. Green is a nice player who, as I understand it, has a deal with the team, so he's on this side of the pond, playing in Idaho. And he makes 15 on our roster.

Portland's (not-so-secretly) looking for something more at the SF. Not a huge splash, but a quality starter who, I assume, will come off the payroll in 2009, when the Blazers appear to be shooting to blow a huge wad keeping their young studs and picking up big-name free agents for a run at the Title. To get that SF, we'll need to move at least one player, and probably two.

Who goes? I think Martell will stick unless we trade his potential for a decent contract that isn't sheer potential. Joel's the big name being floated as a contract we want to move. And most people assume (probably correctly) that Jarrett Jack's days in town are numbered. So I'm looking for a deal of Joel and Jarrett in a 2-for-1 for a SF, or Joel, Jarrett, and Martell in a 3-for-2 for a SF and SG. So, here's the probable roster I see for opening day:

C: Greg Oden, Raef LaFrentz
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge, Channing Frye, Josh McRoberts
SF: Unknown-player, James Jones, Travis Outlaw, Darius Miles (injured)
SG: Brandon Roy, Martell Webster (or Unknown-player)
PG: Steve Blake, Sergio Rodriguez.

That's 13 players. In that scenario, I could see the team maybe putting Taurean Green on the bench. And maybe pulling Joel Freeland into the country to play in the NBDL, where he could presumably get more playing time than he is in Europe, and where he could be available when LaFrentz goes down with the injury du jour.

Interested to hear your thoughts on what the Blazers will look like in a month or two.

Steve Blake Rejoins Blazers

According to KFXX 1080 am, Steve Blake's agreed to a deal in principle to rejoin the Blazers. So, is he the starting PG now?

Deal's two years, at least, with a third-year team option. No financial details yet.

I think there's a trade coming. I think Jarrett, Joel, and maybe Martell will move for a SF.

Cheering for Stevie Franchise

Because the Blazers get 50% of whatever he makes credited back to them from the buy-out, which in turn gets us more cap relief.

So, it's heartening to hear news like this:

Hours after Francis agreed to have his contract bought out by the Portland Trail Blazers, his agent, Jeff Fried, began talks with several teams — including the Rockets — to find him a home.

"There is no secret Steve has a strong affinity for Houston and for the Houston Rockets," Fried said. "We're talking to a number of teams. Steve has some thinking to do."

Fried said Francis, 30, is considering the Rockets, Mavericks, Heat, Lakers and Clippers, all of whom he said have shown interest or have been receptive to pursuing Francis.

So, if four teams are dumb enough to try to sign on the malcontent, I say more power to them, and let the bidding war begin!

Blazer Updates

A couple of interesting things mentioned in Jason Quick's blog today, other than Greg Oden's side-lining due to tonsillitis.

1. Steve Francis is gone. The Blazers expect to lose about $27 million in the deal, after he gets signed by a new team.
   
2. LaMarcus Aldridge is injured. He appears to have a bone bruise in his heel. Nothing serious (we hope).
   
3. James Jones and Rudy Fernandez are now, finally, official Blazers.
   
4. When asked whether Jones will be our starting SF, Kevin Pritchard tipped his hand that the team's still moving on things.

Numbers 1 and 3 are no surprise. Number 2 is a minor story, unless the minor injury turns into something worse. And number 4 may be exciting, unless KP's just being coy as the Blazers still haven't sealed the deal on Travis Outlaw. But Quick, who knows the team much better than I do, indicates that (to him) KP's statements are indicative of at least one more "big move" this summer.

I can't wait to see what it might be. For those who thought that it might be Steve Blake, he wouldn't seem to affect the SF starter. So we'll see.

Over-reacting to Oden

John Canzano has Greg Oden as the most influential figure in Oregon sports. I disagree. Oden is influential, and will become more so. But popularity and influence are different. I would peg Paul Allen or Phil Knight as being at the top of the Oregon sports heap right now, influence wise.

Meanwhile, the Blazers are in Vegas, where they have lost their first two Summer League games. Understandibly, a lot of emphasis has been placed on Greg Oden's performance. However, I think it's just too much. After his first game, Jason Quick was prompted to put up a blog post entitled "In Defense of Oden." After a better, but still lackluster, second game, the top of page A1 on the Oregonian says "Greg Oden plays better, but Blazers still lose."

Several other sites are focussing on Oden's performance at the Summer League as the key story for the Blazers so far. It's not surprising given that he was the number one pick in the draft. At the same time, however, he's a rookie, and a rough start should be expected (and some slack should be cut). Greg Oden will grow into the league. It'll just take more than 5 games to do so.

Dave at Blazers Edge does a good job of highlighting the Real Big Stories of the Summer League. Give his article a read, if you're only going to click on one of these links. I think what we're seeing in these games is that Sergio's not-ready-for-primetime, and that we need stability at the PG. Also, I think we'll see in the first half of the season whether Martell's going to make or break his career in Portland. I predict he goes elsewhere (and succeeds with new coaching). I had high hopes for him, but I think that, like Jermaine O'Neal, he needs some fresh air before he reaches his potential. Which is sad. I think Dave's right, though, that one of the most interesting stories is the show being put on by Taurean Green. I like him a lot. Tough-nosed kid, though under-sized. I'm intrigued to see where he ends up this year.

Tempering Expectations

This post is as much for me as for you. After reading Dave's Falsehoop post over at BlazersEdge, it's time to get real about the coming Blazers season. So here are some facts.

FACT: Greg Oden will put up impressive stat numbers.
BUT: Some of those numbers will be impressive in a bad way, at least to start the season. As Oden gets used to the NBA game, expect a lot of turnovers, a lot of fouls, and a lot of missed shots.

FACT: Darius Miles won't play this year.
BUT: He'll still be a drain on our resources. There won't be a buy-out, there won't be a medical retirement. There'll just be Darius, fat and happy in his suit (by the way, I've yet to see a fat Darius picture. Anyone have a link to one?)

FACT: The Blazers will be powerful in the playoffs.
BUT: It won't be for at least another year. They are a young team. Expect a rough first half of this season before they start to gel.

FACT: Travis Outlaw will finally show whether he'll reach his potential.
BUT: The down-side is that we probably aren't getting our stud SF, as I've been hoping. I've been asking around, and the Rudy Fernandez mystery is simply that Pritchard really wasn't supposed to discuss him too much until the trade was finalized. Apparently the team's high on Fernandez and has no immediate plans to move him. So we have some moving to do, but at the same time there's not a whole lot of splash left this summer.

Blazer fans are high as a kite right now. Which is great. But everyone thinks Greg Oden is the second coming and that he'll miraculously bring the Blazers to the Finals this year. Although I don't want to go so far as to say it absolutely won't happen, well, it won't. This team has very good players who are very young. Greg's got to get his basketball legs and, like many rookies, will hit a wall half-way through the longer NBA season. LaMarcus will have his first season with big-time starter minutes and will probably also show a lapse at some point in the later season (though I'd think he'll get through it more quickly than Oden). We're still not settled at PG. And our SF-by-committee approach leaves something to be desired.

I do expect us to be in contention for this year's 8th playoff seed. That said, if we don't quite make it, that's okay. Our window really opens in about two years.

It's a good time to be a Blazers fan. Just don't be shocked when reality hits. All good things to those who wait...

Glad Zach is Gone

Zach Randolph is a good basketball player. All-Star caliber. Yada yada yada.

But he was not a good person for Portland (I reject the assertion that Portland just wasn't good for him). His presence here was destructive.

Police never convicted Zach of anything. But there was enough smoke in the air to convince me that his life was a conflagration of trouble.

I repeat the litany again:

• Served 30 days in juvenile detention for shoplifting.
• Served 30 days of house arrest for battery.
• Served 30 days in juvenile detention for possession of stolen firearms.
• Got popped for DUII in 2003, with an odor of the whacky tobaccy wafting from his ride.
• Nearly got popped for lying to police in 2003 related to a nightclub shooting involving his brother.
• Sucker-punched teammate Ruben Patterson in 2003, shattering his eye socket.
• Was alleged to have helped Qyntel Woods intimidate witnesses related to the whole pit-bull fighting frackas, and eventually sued for the same.
• Suspended for flipping off fans.
• In June, 2006 he was the passenger in his own car while a friend was driving it, speeding, racing someone in another Randolph-owned car, downtown (with guns in the car).
• In August 2006, he was implicated in a sexual assault on a stripper (criminal charges were declined, but a civil suit is still pending).
• In January 2007, his wallet and gun were found when a friend of his brandished the gun, threatened people outside of a local bar with it, then left the scene in Randolph's car while drunk driving.
• In March 2007, Zach was at a strip club in NE Portland while on "bereavement leave" for the death of a family friend in Indiana, while his team was playing just a few miles away without him.
• In May 2007, Zach and Darius Miles were reportedly in a club's parking lot at around the same time that gunshots were reported in the area.

Eek. Not good.

Of course, Randolph wants you to not look at the man behind the curtain. As he was announced to Knicks fans in New York, Randolph was urging them to disregard history in determining what they were getting.

A couple of his recent quotes:

"Don't judge me for the past, judge me for the future. I've wiped my hands. It's a new start, new slate."

"I'm a man. I made mistakes when I was young. That's all over with. I'm on a fresh start."

Right. When you were young, those many four months ago (if you're willing, like most, to discount the last bullet point, since no smoking gun was ever found).

Zach Randolph is a good basketball player. But he's a flawed, troubled, and endangered person. Most note that Randolph's problem isn't intrinsic so much as it is a result of hanging around bad people. Rumor has it that as Zach is moving east, so is his "Hoops Family." And, if that's the case, Z-Bo's troubles aren't over.

But, thank God for us, Portland's are. We have a new slate, and we've wiped our hands clean. Thank God for our fresh start.

Puzzling over Darius Miles, Blazer Trades, and Mike Barrett's Lost Text

So last week we had this draft thingy, and Portland's future started looking just a bit rosier. During the draft, Kevin Pritchard did all sorts of trading, and there were pieces still falling into place the next morning (by which I mean our new SF, James Jones).

James Jones was actually announced as fall-out of the draft in our favor by, among others, Mike Barrett, a Trailblazers employee and part of their PR machine, on his blog (which is linked to the Blazers website).

Meanwhile, KP was discussing a mysterious back-end to the draft night excitement which he couldn't get into, but which would apparently net us a small forward.

There is something interesting in all of this:

I quoted Barrett's blog over at the Metroblog as I was following up on the draft fall-out the next day. The post where Barrett discussed James Jones originally said this:

Now, there was one other move you didn't hear about, and it won't be made official for about a week. The Blazers, in conjunction with the trade to New York, used a trade exception to purchase the Fernandez pick (which you did hear about) and will also acquire Phoenix's James Jones. Jones is a good outside shooter and was very solid with the Suns the past couple of seasons.

That quote, strangely, is now gone, as are almost all comments referring to James Jones.

I used the fact that Barrett had released the news on Jones while KP was keeping mum about something to fuel my personal opinion that Jones wasn't the SF that KP was referring to. Now, I'm not so sure. Maybe Barrett let slip something he shouldn't. Or, maybe, the Blazers are playing games. Who knows?

But, anyway, most people think there's still trading to be done. Over on 1080 The Fan, they were speculating that maybe KP has secured a buyer for Darius Miles' contract, and perhaps that's part of the deal he can't discuss, because he talked about cap relief or something like that.

And that has me thinking: who would take Darius' contract, and why?

According to an acquaintance of mine that knows some stuff, here's the deal with Darius. He's injured and useless and probably won't be getting back into playing shape. He can't be approached to ask him to quit. If he does quit, though, there's cap relief for the team when he signs the papers. Darius may not be team-oriented enough, or smart enough, to get that he's just a pain in the ass until he does sign the papers. Our only hope is that his agent, who has to continue working in this league, can help him see the light.

Now, here's my thought: the Blazers can't approach Darius and ask him to quit. But does that mean that Darius can't approach the Blazers to negotiate the terms of his resignation?

I don't even know what I mean by that, by the way. He's got a huge paycheck coming when he signs the papers, and I don't know that he could modify his contract at all to get out of it. But, at the same time, he's in an awfully strong bargaining position, I'd think. The Blazers want him gone, and it's conceivable that, if he realizes that, he can utilize that need of theirs to fulfill some desires of his own. What sort, I don't know.

But, hypothetically, if he's already approached the team and negotiated some terms of some sort (maybe a cut on some merchandise, or free rides on Paul's plane, or a new laptop with the latest Windows OS every year for the rest of his life), and they have agreed to those terms to secure his promise to leave the team, then perhaps there is something to the idea that a team would take him. Because, it seems to me, that they'd get the benefit of his quitting on their cap that the Blazers would have got.

Of course, I may be insane. Tell me if I am.

Either way, I still think something's up. Blazer brass (and Mike Barrett) have freely acknowledged that we picked up Rudy Fernandez in the draft after acquiring the pick from New York (in fact, that's even still on the same Barrett Blog post I've already linked). But when asked questions about Rudy on Friday by Isaac Ropp on 1080, including whether he'll be coming over or whether he'll be on the summer league team, KP zipped his lip and said he couldn't discuss it. Which means that Rudy is part of a deal (and not the deal that netted us the now-mysterious James Jones from Phoenix) and is going to move on July 11th.

So, what gives? Is Darius moving? Is he even moveable? What deals are cooking? And what happened on Mike Barrett's Blog? So much intrigue...

UPDATE 7/3/07: JOHN CANZANO AT THE OREGONIAN REVEALS THE BACK-END ON HIS BLOG. STILL DOESN'T EXPLAIN THE RUDY FERNANDEZ MYSTERY TO ME...)