I like Canzano. He's a good guy. He and I have been able to go back and forth in the past, discussing a variety of sports stuff, thanks to having a mutual friend and both enjoying the use of e-mail (seriously, the guy answers e-mail proficiently, which is super-cool from the local big-time sports columnist). He and his co-host were previewing the remainder of the Ducks' season, and their prospects for post-season bowl play, and it got me thinking of related thoughts which, as far as I can tell, are actually my own.
First, they were saying that the Ducks have an excellent shot at making the national championship game. I agree that they do, if they win out. I think LSU probably has a loss coming (I'd guess to Florida, as opposed to Georgia, but I could be wrong) and I wouldn't be shocked to see Ohio State slip up to Michigan in the Big House (other than the Appalachian State loss, Michigan's had a pretty good season).
But we saw on Saturday that there is one big problem with the "if they win out" portion of the Ducks' equation. Because, if Dennis Dixon goes down, I don't believe that Brady Leaf can effectively run the Ducks' offense.
As an aside, that also has me worried for next year. If he's the slated starter for the 2008 campaign, we're in trouble, because our offense revolves around speed at the quarterback. But, I digress.
My belief, sadly, is that if the Ducks are able to make it to the national championship game, they will lose. Production has fallen way off as our receiving corps has been decimated, and we are getting way too one-dimensional. And, no disrespect to Aaron Pflugrad, who's having a great year for a freshman, but when he's quickly becoming your go-to receiver as a 5'8", 170-pound guy, you're really in trouble. The fact is, as Oregon has lost our top two guys to injuries and our next guy to a team suspension, we've seen Dennis Dixon's passing yards, and our team's scoring totals, dwindle steadily. Dixon's picking up the slack with his feet, but as defenses become less worried about the pass, they can start to focus more on following the ball in Oregon's confusing ground game.
My second thought is born out of watching the team struggle with Leaf on Saturday. It's so clear that Dixon is such an essential element on this team in creating its success that I don't know how Dixon doesn't get the Heisman, assuming he just maintains the status quo. Sure, Johnathan Stewart will be the higher draft pick (probably), but Dixon is the reason this offense works. His quickness on the field physically, his great decision-making, and his very adequate passing skills have combined with Chip Kelly's system to produce a potent offensive backfield that just wouldn't exist with any other quarterback I can think of.
Next year I predict a slump that will highlight how special Dennis Dixon was for this team. And any objective Heisman voter should be able to see the tremendous impact Dixon has had on this team's good fortunes as clear as the nose on their face. As Canzano noted, it's Dixon's award to lose at this point. Assuming he stays healthy and maintains a 3-1 TD to INT ratio in his last two games, along with at least 80 yards rushing, I think he takes it.
Chime in. Your thoughts are welcome.
1 comment:
Leaf is a senior. He isn't next year's starter, Costa is.
As far as offensive production, don't you think USC and ASU's stout defenses had something to do with that?
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